Value Betting Explained – Odds to Percentage Chance

Value betting is very important when trying to make money from the bookmakers. It’s the reason you should use a value odds comparison site. Here we will explain how the odds to percentage chances are worked out.

Implied probability is a conversion of betting odds into a percentage. It takes into account the bookmaker margin to express the expected probability of an outcome occurring. We do have an odds to percentage chart below, but first, we try and explain how it works. We have used both fractional and decimal odds in the chart as their the most common in the UK and Europe.

You have a value bet when the odds on offer from a bookmaker reflect a probability that is less to the actual probability of that outcome occurring in your opinion. Let’s try and relate this to a situation for example which will win the kick off in a football match which is decided by the toss of a coin. The chance of it being heads or tails is 50% or even money if you’re into decimals it can be expressed as 2.00.

The games between Manchester Utd and Liverpool and the odds compiler at Bet365 as given the following odds.

Manchester UTD to win the toss are 9/10 or 1.90 while at Ladbrokes they are offering 11/10 or 2.10 if you were having a bet where would you go?

Bet365 are offering 1.90, but we know it’s a 50% chance so we calculate (50% x 1.90) – 100% = -5% which is less than the actual chance of Manchester winning the toss. In other words, not a value betting opportunity as the odds to percentage chance is in the bookmaker’s favour.

However, the very generous compiler at Ladbrokes wants to give us 2.10 or 11/10 in fractional odds, so we repeat the calculation. (50% as 2.10) -100% = +5% this is value betting.

The only issue here is that it’s a made-up value betting opportunity and odds to percentage chances don’t occur that often as the bookmaker would soon be pretty poor and as you know it’s rare you see a skint bookie. Sucessful clients and professional gamblers identify situations where value betting is available and bet.  They may not get it right all the time but in the long term they will make a profit.  They work to very small margins but with a large amount of turnover in most cases looking to make just 2% or 3%.

FractionalDecimal Probability %
1/100 1.01 99.00
1/50 1.02 98.03
1/33 1.03 97.08
1/25 1.04 96.15
1/20 1.05 95.23
1/10 1.10 90.90
2/13 1.15 86.95
2/11 1.18 84.74
1/5 1.20 83.33
2/9 1.23 81.30
1/4 1.25 80.00
2/7 1.29 77.80
3/10 1.30 76.70
1/3 1.33 75.00
4/11 1.36 73.33
2/5 1.40 71.43
4/9 1.44 69.23
1/2 1.50 66.67
8/15 1.53 65.50
4/7 1.57 63.64
8/13 1.65 61.90
2/3 1.67 60.00
8/11 1.73 57.89
4/5 1.80 55.56
5/6 1.83 54.55
9/10 1.90 52.63
10/11 1.91 52.38
1/1 2.00 50.00
21/20 2.05 48.78
11/10 2.10 47.62
10/9 2.11 47.37
6/5 2.20 45.45
5/4 2.25 44.44
13/10 2.30 43.48
27/20 2.35 42.55
11/8 2.37 42.11
7/5 2.40 41.67
3/2 2.50 40.00
8/5 2.60 38.46
13/8 2.62 38.10
17/10 2.70 37.04
7/4 2.75 36.36
9/5 2.80 35.71
15/8 2.87 34.78
19/10 2.90 34.48
2/1 3.00 33.33
21/10 3.10 32.26
11/5 3.20 31.25
9/4 3.25 30.77
23/10 3.30 30.30
12/5 3.40 29.41
5/2 3.50 28.57
13/5 3.60 27.78
27/10 3.70 27.03
11/4 3.75 26.67
14/5 3.80 26.32
3/1 4.00 25.00
10/3 4.33 23.08
7/2 4.50 22.22
4/1 5.00 20.00
9/2 5.50 18.18
5/1 6.00 16.67
11/2 6.50 15.38
6/1 7.00 14.29
13/2 7.50 13.33
7/1 8.00 12.50
15/2 8.50 11.76
8/1 9.00 11.11
17/2 9.50 10.53
9/1 10.00 10.00
10/1 11.00 9.09
11/1 12.00 8.33
12/1 13.00 7.69
14/1 15.00 6.67
16/1 17.00 5.88
18/1 19.00 5.26
20/1 21.00 4.76
22/1 23.00 4.35
25/1 26.00 3.85
28/1 29.00 3.45
33/1 34.00 2.94
40/1 41.00 2.44
50/1 51.00 1.96
66/1 67.00 1.49
80/1 81.00 1.23
100/1 101.00 0.99

 

To see how this looks for clients in the USA take a look here at Bet Legal USA.